Chris Cilliza says that the electoral map has shrunk since President Obama's 365 vote and 10 million margin in 2008. Citing Republicans, he claims the map is more like 2004 when George Bush eked out a 286 victory over John Kerry. He sees that Indiana and Missouri will revert to Republican form.
He claims the Republicans want to include Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as swing states. But Cilliza claims the list is:
1. Colorado
2. Florida
3. Iowa
4. Nevada
5. New Hampshire
6. North Carolina
7. Ohio
8. Virginia
9. Wisconsin
He notes that Obama carried all nine states by an average of 7.6 points or 8.5points if you exclude North Carolina's narrow victory.
The Republicans argue that Obama's victory was anomalous so that all these states would fall back to the GOP fold. Therefore, Obama would fail at 264 votes and lose the presidency.
But if Obama wins only one of these states--such as Nevada with 6 votes, he will be re-elected. Cilliza says that Romney must try and make Michigan and Wisconsin swing states for him to have any wiggle room. As I've written, Obama has a lot of more different ways to get to 270 than Romney.
As I've noted, a series of polls indicates that Colorado is no longer a swing state. Other bloggers has the election as Tilt Obama at 300+ electoral votes.
Today, the Obama campaign opened its 12th office in Virginia. The Romney campaign has 0.
Keep your eyes on Ohio. It's clear the GOP strategy demands Ohio. So far I have not seen a single poll showing the presidential race is competitive or even the Senate race with Sherrod Brown.
On North Carolina, the Obama campaign plans to put an organization in place prior to the convention and afterwards.
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