Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Where Do The Supporters of Ron Paul Go?

Nate Silver at his New York Times post notes that Ron Paul has done better this year than in 2008. Paul has garnered 10% of the vote in the Republican primaries and caucuses and nearly 1.2 million people have voted for him. Ron Paul today vowed to campaign on and said that he represented the "true conservative" in the race. He has cut ads for his home state of Texas. 


Silver points out that Paul's money was less this time around , some $34 million with another $4 million in a SuperPac dedicated to his cause, but that he made headway in terms of influencing the turn of public opinion on Afghanistan.


So where do his followers go? His campaign is really about ideas and building a movement than winning a nomination. But his followers feel badly burned by how the primaries and caucuses dealt them out of delegates. One only has to look at Maine or the primary in the U.S. Virgin Islands to see how the local parties made sure to marginalize them.


After the chaos in Missouri, followers of the Texas congressman started blogging their contempt for Mitt Romney and their refusal to support his campaign for the presidency. 


Ron Paul himself had a quiet truce with Romney, never attacking him in any ads ,only other candidates. His followers provided the only enthusiasm of the primary season as witnessed by the turnouts. And Paul actually had an energetic organization in marked contrast with almost all the other candidates. Paul was the only candidate who generated interest among the younger voters, a demographic the GOP seems committed to ignoring and suppressing its vote. 


Ron Paul is vexing to the Romney people because his potential to seriously hurt the GOP is real. Unlike the others, Paul or a libertarian candidate would siphon off enough votes to deprive Romney of victories in several states. But do you give him a prime time slot at the Convention or pretend to consider Rand Paul as your vice presidential nominee? 


It is unlikely any of the above will buy off Ron Paul supporters. While no one is talking about it now, former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson will be the beneficiary. Johnson himself campaigned earlier for the Republican nomination but bowed out because of money woes and being excluded from debates. Currently, he is running for President as a libertarian. His is the type of profile that would attract younger Paul supporters--isolationist,socially liberal and fiscally conservative. 

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