Voto Latino

Before I rant, I saw a Fox News poll on Ohio--Obama 45- Romney 36. Willard has to close this gap before he can get in the game for real.


Meanwhile,at the Palm Beach fund-raiser where Willard said he would eliminate Hud and downsize the Department of Education, he spoke the unthinkable  when he said that without getting Hispanic votes the GOP is facing a demographic disaster. 


The Obama campaign has launched an television ad campaign in Spanish in swing states and the President has given interviews with the Spanish-language media talking about his plans to try and get immigration reform in the first year of a new term but he stressed the resistance of the Republicans on this.


For the past two days, Republicans have been trying to come up with a Dream Act Lite which would appear to attract Latinos. Marco Rubio has been trying to craft this initiative because he has warned fellow GOPers that the anti-immigration language in the primaries and the House have alienated Latinos. 


What I wonder is why then did Mitt Romney, knowing what he knows about the fate of the GOP,consistently talk about self-deportation and how the Arizona law was the model for how to deal with illegal immigrants when his people knew how alienating that was to Latinos. He is trying to become the President and sometimes he should reveal some character. But to even have the author of the Arizona bill as your adviser on immigration and then down-grade his position as "adviser", that's a bit much.


But as the head of Voto Latino pointed out that all the self-deportation language of the Republican primary was covered everyday in the Spanish-language press and discussed in the community. She also pointed out that Mitt Romney also recruited former Governor Pete Wilson, who is reviled by California Latinos, as an adviser. To damage him further, there is an enormous gender gap. How this affects Latinos is the basic fact that the Latina is the generating force for voter participation in the community. So you have to bridge not only the gender gap but also the Latino problem to make in-roads into the community.


Steve Schmidt, McCain's former adviser, pointed out that George W got about 40% of the Latino vote, McCain about 33% and Romney is now looking at the 20 percentile, while this community is the fastest growing in the country. Unfortunately for them, their numbers are not yet reflected in the total electorate of the country since the Latino community is notorious in neglecting to register to vote. However, that has been changing. As Schmidt pointed out on MSNBC, if the GOP doesn't correct course soon it will face itself doomed.


The only bright not for Romney in all this is there is actually an enthusiasm gap among both women and Hispanics, two groups he is far behind in.


In case you were wondering why Gallup has Romney at 48% over Obama at 43%, part of the reason may be that the make-up of Gallup's tracking poll is more like 2010 than 2008. In other words, it has about 22% people of color, than the 26% of 2008 and also people anticipate this year that figure will be 28%. This differential can account for a lot.


As of now, political scientists say that polls are less than 50-50 as predictors