++You would never know it reading this morning's papers. President Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination for president after the primaries in Wisconsin, Maryland and D.C. He has all the delegates he needs. Meanwhile, Willard with a clean sweep but a soft victory in Wisconsin is still over 500 delegates away.
++Ipsos Forecasting says that if Obama maintains a 47% approval rating, his chances of re-election are 85%. If he happens to be around 50%, the odds got up the 99%. Clifford Young, their lead pollster, says Ipsos is more interested in polling now for congressional races to see how Obama can govern in a second term. He basically views Obama's re-election as natural, unless some major event happens.
++Joe Biden supports this by saying they might lose if something major happens in the Eurozone or in the Gulf.
++In the latest poll, 62% of Jewish voters would like to see Obama re-elected. Only 30% support a Republican. 86% of all Jewish supporters of Obama will vote for him again.
++PPP, which actually got last night's primaries right, says that the enthusiasm gap has reversed itself and is heavily weighted to the Democrats. 57% of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting compared to 46% of Republicans. This margin has been getting larger in the last 4 out of 5 PPP polls. Among core Obama constituencies, African-Americans are now off the charts, women and the young had rebounded to 2008 levels. This mattered deeply in the 2010 debacle,when enthusiasm lagged.
++Last week USA/ Gallup poll showed that Obama beats Romney by five points in various Swing States. The increased margin is almost totally the result of women supporting Obama. Romney has a one point lead in men nationwide but a 51-38 lead over Obama in white men over 61.
++The Economy remains the key voter concern. It looks from preliminary levels that the private sector added at least 209,000 jobs this month. The official Labor statistics should be higher. And Fed Chairman predicts this year's growth rate will be a 3.3%.
++Electoral Vote.com is getting back up for this election. This is their electoral vote breakdown as of today.
Strong Democratic states --253 votes
Weak Democratic states -- 32 votes
Barely Democratic states -- 73 votes
Barely GOP states -- 13 votes
Weak GOP states -- 42 votes
Strong GOP states -- 125 votes
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