Real Clear Politics Electoral Map

Real Clear Politics tends to tilt Republican but it is worth looking at for a picture of the electoral map. Remember what I wrote that Romney basically has to "steal" 100 votes from President Obama.


Real Clear now has the race at 227 Obama to 170 for Romney.  The Toss-up states--141-- are:
 Arizona (11)
Colorado(9)
Florida (29)
Iowa    (6)
Missouri (10)
Nevada   (6)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virginia (13)


As of now, Colorado, according to PPP, is no longer a swing state but solidly for Obama. New Hampshire Obama enjoys over a 10 point lead. So let's now give Obama 240 total.


As of now, it looks like Romney has Arizona. So give him 11 making him at 181.


So the race boils down to 8 states. Obama needs 30 votes. He can do it with Nevada,North Carolina and Virginia. He could do it simply with Ohio and Pennsylvania/ or Virginia and Ohio/ or North Carolina and Pennsylvania.  Or he could do it with Florida and Iowa. And you can play with the other combinations.


On the other hand, Romney has a daunting task. He has to run the gamut from Florida,Ohio, Pennsylvania,North Carolina and maybe Virginia. His big problem is that he is down in all the states he needs to win. His advantage is in voter suppression. It basically is now illegal to register voters in Florida and voter ID laws may benefit him in Pennsylvania and Ohio. And he benefits from having a slew of Republican governors who will turn the other way at voter hijinks. But to pull that off, he needs to keep the margin down to less than 5 points to manipulate the results. 


Today, I just don't see Romney running the string. You have to have a sophisticated ground game in every state you need and right now he has none and the local Republican parties are broke.


Obama only won Florida by 2.2% and that was because Charlie Crist didn't want a repeat of 2000. he current governor Scott could care less. I could even see Gov. Kasich try to throw Ohio but Romney would have to get much closer. 


While Pennsylvania has an almost all-Republican state legislature and Voter ID laws, this might give the GOP an edge but then again Romney would have to get much closer to Obama. Throughout the 2008 campaign, the McCain people honestly thought they could win Pennsylvania, even though all local polls showed they didn't stand a chance. Even the new Voter ID laws has crippled a hidden GOP constituency--the Amish, which had been mobilized for George W. They lack any photo ID and will be cut out of this election. But I have warned that Obama's polling in the state has been lukewarm, even though he has led all the way. 


As for the smaller states, Obama has put in the organization needed to pull the elections out, while Romney can only rely on the Mormons in Nevada to give him a shot.


So far I don't see where Anderson Cooper came up with a Romney victory at this stage of the game.