John Zeigler "An Electoral Tie"

In the political section of Huffington Post, John Zeigler, a conservative columnist, writes how not far fetched an electoral tie would be this year. In that case, the newly elected House of Representatives would choose the President. Given election projections right now, the Democrats will come up short in trying to take over the House because of gerrymandering. Given that the election of Barack Obama cleansed the nation of the 2000 debacle, a return to electoral confusion might fatally de-legitimize our democratic system.


Zeigler doesn't make some wild projections or impossible picks. He predicts Romney will win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire and lose Virginia. He believes that Romney with his Mormons will take Nevada because Obama somehow has dissed the state. He believes that Romney having heavily campaigned in Iowa twice already and Obama could lose 5 points because of the economy--although Iowa has been immune--will take it. He cites New Hampshire as Romney's home state and that the state still hates government but not as much as once advertised. He did make a shrewd observation that stopping Obama in  New Hampshire closes some of Obama's options for getting to 270.


Zeigler doesn't get mired in the Pennsylvania trap, which sank McCain in 2008, although I see Romney going there this year again. He believes Virginia will be very close but that the northern Virginia "federal workers" will be mobilized to vote for an Obama victory.


Right now Zeigler has Romney winning Ohio and Florida, simply on the assumption they are rightfully Republican states. So far the polls have shown no indication that this will be the case. Florida we know will be problematic because of the tight restrictions on voter registration and efforts to suppress the vote. 


But I found Zeigler's piece thought-provoking. He is the first writer I have seen get Romney as high as 269, which worries me that this could become the strategy since people like Grover Norquist has indicated that the conservatives do not need a strong President to sign into law the Ryan Budget or the many different bills to roll-back the social safety net.


So keep your eyes on Ohio.