Interesting Details in Latest Polls

In the CNN/Orc International poll.


With the exception of seniors (65 or over), all age groups back President Obama.


President Obama has a 20pt lead over Romney among people earning less than $50,000. Above that, they are even.


75% of Obama supporters are for him because of who he is.


6 in 10 Romney voters are for him because they are against President Obama.


2/3rds of the voters have already made up their mind. Only 29% say they could change their mind. 


Only 35% say Romney will be victorious. Why that's important is that in the last four presidential elections the public could predict the winner in the Spring or early Summer.


In the poll, which was taken two days after the Hilary Rosen remarks,Obama had a 55%-39% advantage.


50% said that President Obama stands up for what they believe in. Only 29% said the same about Romney.


50% said that Romney will change his mind for political reasons.


The ABC/Washington Post poll covered the character issue between the two candidates. This was not a horse-race poll. 


Obama was seen favorably by 54% against 43%. Romney was seen as favorably by 35% and 47% not. 


Romney is the first nominee who is "underwater" for the last 8 presidential elections. 


Only 27% of women see Romney favorably. 58% of women see Obama favorably. 


Romney suffers an enthusiasm gap. Only 12% are very strongly for him; about 24% are just for him.


With Obama, about 30% are very strongly for him, and another 26% are for him.


Only 69% of Republicans are for Romney.
86% of Democrats are for Obama.


Among those younger than 40--Obama leads by 36 pts.
Among the middle aged by 17 points.
Among seniors, Romney leads by 2 its.


Among singles, Obama leads by 31 points.
Among married women, Obama leads by 45 points.


Romney has a favorably rating about the same among whites with high school and whites with college education--43%-41%.


Obama has a favorable rating among whites with a high school education of 38%, among those with a college education 52%.


Among Hispanics, Obama has a 76%-33% advantage over Romney; among African-Americans 93%, while only 10% see Romney favorably.


Obama is considered more likable and friendly than Romney by 38 points.
Obama is more inspiring by 26 points.
Obama has a 12 point better understanding of "my economic problems.


Tonight, CNN claims they ran a new poll that showed that Romney had reached a positive favorable rating for the first time since he began running. Frankly, I doubt it. 


What the ABC/Washington Post poll measured was that intangible element of  character. There, Obama still has great reservoirs of political capital. 


The fact that recent polls show a close race is almost due to the economy. If we had a couple of very good months in terms of job creation, you would see the polls widen. Romney may be the strongest candidate from the Republican race but he is the weakest candidate the GOP has nominated in a long time. 


Warning: we are moving into the Obama funk period--the early summer months are when strange things have happened. The Gulf oil spill, the cancellations of foreign trips and oddball things like the prostitute scandal in Colombia. So beware. He usually comes on strong in the early fall.