The Veepstakes

Mitt Romney still hasn't wrapped up the GOP nomination. He only has 35% of the super delegates and stands approximately where John McCain was after  Super Tuesday. But the nomenklatura and the GOP establishment believes Romney is the nominee as does the Obama Campaign. So the latest parlor game is to guess his choice for the vice presidential nominee.


My hunch is that he will choose someone he thinks would be a good junior executive as if he is a CEO. This person must defer to his campaign operatives and never upstage the nominee. He will avoid a Sarah Palin pick like the plague because he can't afford alienating more voters than he already does.


While congenital wisdom is about compensating for one's flaws and a demographic lacking in your base. Mitt Romney will have to spend from May until the convention repairing fences among the conservatives. However, electorally he knows that all the Red States will vote for him anyway, even if they are skeptical about his religion. 


Right now he is a whopping 19 points behind Obama among women voters. From the public statements by congressional Republicans and Romney himself,there is no awareness that this is really a problem. But, remember Obama only has to win 51% of the women's vote to win re-election. That should give pause to the Romney people. 


Howard Dean suggested Romney select Susanna Martinez, the popular governor of New Mexico, to shore up both the Hispanic and woman's vote. Ms. Martinez has already said that she can't leave the state because she is caring for her disabled sister. Others have suggested Nikki Haley, the sexy Sikh, governor of South Carolina and a teabag favorite. She has a tremendous amount of baggage that would recall Sarah Palin. I personally do not think Romney is psychologically capable of selecting a woman.


Romney is losing to President Obama 70-14 among Hispanics. The  Latino vote is critical in swing states, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and of course Florida. The only viable candidate is Senator Marco Rubio, the freshman Senator from Florida. Beltway pundits claim he is too young and inexperienced, neglecting to mention his long history as a state legislator. But Rubio has already hired private detectives to research his own past. Journalists who have covered him point to several problems that would have to be the point of immediate damage control. But electoral arithmetic demands Romney win Florida and Rubio would give him a real shot.


Another early backer of Mitt Romney is New Jersey's Chris Christie, who is a favorite of Republicans. But Christie wouldn't even bring New Jersey to the Republican fold. Besides Christie looks like an even more overweight William Howard Taft. And psychologically he is abusive and obnoxious.


That leaves us Paul Ryan. Romney and Ryan have chemistry together and among Republicans Ryan is considered "serious", despite the dramatic flaws in his budgets. But Ryan would energize the conservative base because of his strong ideology of cutting the social safety net and increasing the military budget. Dana Milbank thinks Romney doesn't want the negatives of the Ryan budget. I don't believe it since Ryan's budget is not as extreme as Romney's. I think Paul Ryan is in good shape because he was one of the "Young Turks" popularized by the Republican establishment. And he has taken on the role of the attack dog by the GOP against Obama.


Another person Romney feels comfortable with is the junior Senator from Ohio, Rob Portman. Both campaigned together throughout the state. Portman was the budget director under George W. Bush. And Romney has campaigned on the premise that President Obama caused the Recession. I don't think being associated with the former President is a disqualification among Republicans. After all Romney is campaigning with W's economic advisers and some of his foreign policy aides. 


It will come down to what Romney feels he needs at the time of the convention. He has to be able to re-introduce himself to the American people. No one can take away from him achieving that purpose. He can't deal with enormous amount of baggage in his choice. His choice can't overcome his own weaknesses. He believes the economy is his "wheelhouse" and I believe he will choose someone who thinks along the same lines. 


His biggest geographical weakness is the Midwest. Ohio is totally controlled by Republicans from the county level through the legislature and the governor's house. Romney can't win without Ohio. The question is whether Portman can bring him the state. His liability is that he is linked to Governor Kasich. In the Ohio primary, Romney only won the Republicans who earned more than $100,000. He needs to energize the large evangelical segment of voters and those who are middle class or blue-collar workers. On this I would lean to Ryan for a broader ideological and regional appeal.


The last person would be a wildcard to the Beltway Punditocracy. Throughout the campaign, Romney always said he would defer to the opinions of the generals on any military affairs. As seen by the Washington Post poll this morning, Romney faces a huge national security gap. Romney can unite the Republican economics and the social conservatives, who believe Obama is everything, including Satan. For the national security types, he will need to do something. He comes across as incredibly weak. Although a self-proclaimed Rockefeller Republican, General Petraeus is the darling of the neo-cons and the national security wing of the GOP. Having been the CIA director as well as the commanding general in both Iraq and Afghanistan, Petraeus would instantly solve Romney's national security problem. For Republicans, that would create some excitement for the ticket. And Petraeus would not get any blowback from the Religious Right.