The Romney Bump--Polls Galore

Gallup tracking--48 Romney,43 Obama


Pew  49 Obama, Romney 45. Gender Gap 23
  ( A month ago--Obama by 12)


Wisconsin: Obama 50 Romney 44
 (A Month ago--Obama 53, Romney 39)


PPP: Florida: Obama 50 Romney 45


Reuters/Ipsos: Obama 47 Romney 43
(A Month ago Obama was up by 11)


CNN/ORC: Obama 52 Romney 43. Gender Gap 16


Rasmussen has Romney up by 2 in North Carolina


Expect many more polls now that pollsters have declared primary season over. Nate Silver warns us that it is best to take the averages of polls at this stage because some polls (Rasmussen) have built-in bias at this stage. He also warns people like me not to make much of the cross-tabs of these early polls because they base their conclusions on too small samples. And lastly he warns us all not to learn too much from American history because the number of presidential elections we have had in the age of polling is still too small. So Caveat Emptor.


Even those polls showing Obama's leads reflect a bump for Romney, largely because the winner of a primary season gets a bounce. Now both campaigns were try to define each other. The GOP want this to be a referendum on the president. The Democrats want this to be an election of two dramatically opposed visions of a democratic society.