Sunday, April 5, 2015

Back from Jazz

++New York is disorienting as always  Walked through Soho the first time in years and there were no longer ghosts of artists but every luxury good you could ever need or not want to buy.

++Did catch the Wisconsin game and wasn't disappointed by their upset. But, really,the announcers were saying it was one of the greatest quarter finals in history? Wisconsin was disciplined but played a great game in so far they won but "in history".

++I saw the Sunday talk shows and was disappointed in the coverage on the Iran deal. First, Bibi appeared to denounce it again and repeated some of his older lines from the 1990s. MSNBC had younger commentators, including reporters for the Nation and the Guardian, which was refreshing. 

++But even if you are for the deal as three of the panelists were. It is not a bilateral agreement. It is negotiated with the major nuclear powers in the world and the two great economies. Sadly this agreement would have been better in 2003 which saw something called the "Letter of Tehran",an agreement between Iran and the EU. This agreement which would have held Iran as 1/3rd the number of centrifuges they retain under this agreement, didn't happen. Why? The West, including the US, reneged on their part of the deal.

++The only nuclear powers not included in this negotiations were Pakistan, India and Israel. 

++I believe there will be an agreement emerged at the end of June. But the United States Congress will sabotage it. Then fast forward to a new administration and the war drums will beat--for what purpose? They will just make one up. We all forget Saddam agreed to leave power if he could retain a few billion for his retirement. We refused and we have and still are paying an enormous price.

++All of us have underestimated President Obama in his ability to get out of political jams. In this case, I wonder whether this is not Salt II again where Jimmy Carter made it into simply a nuclear agreement rather than a change in policy. Remember he was following on his Notre Dame speech where he said we needed fear Communism. 

++On today's shows, General McCafferty reluctantly admitted this deal was about the best John Kerry--no other players--could get. But he also let slip that no military commanders believe either Israel or the United States or even both together can bomb out the nuclear sites.

++Supporters of the agreement note that Iran is stuck with the Atari version of centrifuges and these are so inefficient that even if they cheated, they couldn't produce enough uranium for a bomb. 

++Former Iranian President Bani-Sadr writing in Huffington Post believes Iran should not sign this agreement because it is so one-sided against Iran and is insulting. 

++President Obama's salespitch is that this isn't a Reagan "Trust but verify " type of deal. It is all verify with the most intrusive inspection regime ever. 

++But the challenge will be whether the West will fund the inspections. 

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