O-H-I-O

Fox News this evening came out with 3 swing state polls and Obama sweeps the field. Obama has a 49 to 44 lead in Florida, Ohio and Virginia. If he took all three , he wins. But I am focused on Ohio because that is where John Kerry lost the 2004 election. The Secretary of State in Ohio this time around is still trying to suppress the vote, despite his being chastised by the federal judge. Pity the poor people of Ohio who will have to endure the escalation in ads. It is here that Obama has his stellar GOTV effort. 

++The good news is that we may have an example already how the barrage of negative ads has not moved the Ohio electorate. Far outspent and outgunned, Sherrod Brown is still far ahead of his GOP rival for the Senate.

++Worrisome to Republican operatives is the fact that congressional Republicans are polling better than Romney. But for Senatorial candidates the same doesn't hold true. His fate in close states is theirs. As Charlie Cook wrote in the National Journal,if Romney doesn't take Virginia Dick Allen is toast.

++Obama supporters should to be smug about the debates. Romney has been rehearsing for the debates for months. He has recently debated throughout his primary. The minute he steps on stage he becomes seen as equal to the President. And, yes,the Romney campaign is banking on the fact Romney looks like a President. On the other hand, Obama has to control himself and not get impatient and give off the air "why do I have to stand here and debate this idiot?" He also has to avoid getting pedantic in expressing his policies. And he also has to hide his visceral dislike of Romney.

++Romney is vulnerable in a debate when criticized. He also has a short fuse and has a volcanic temper. Obama should try and get him to lose it. But expect Romney to do decent and spring all sorts of new policy suggestions even though he was avoided them all campaign long. 

++The Obama campaign has a difficult task trying to find the right balance in dealing with Romney in a debate mode.

++Conservatives can't wait for the Biden-Ryan debate. But here they are underestimating Biden. He has run for President many times and debated before the cameras countless times. Ryan is new to the show. If Ryan sticks to his points from his stump speech, he opens himself up to attack. For instance, Ryan criticizes Obama's defense cuts. But it was Paul Ryan himself as head of the budget committee that actually wrote those defense cuts into law. 

++The bar is now so low for Romney that he is sure to clear it . But will it move the needle of the campaign? The Obama people feel that this thing will go down the wire and that polls can come back toward Romney. 

++Others believe the Romney campaign at this late date stands at a critical point. There is now talk that Obama can win this by 5 points and the former Romney supporters switching sides in the Rand Study of American voters is dramatic. The Romney campaign has to stop the bleeding before the debates start in two weeks. They can not afford two weeks more of such self-inflicted damage without crippling the chances of the candidate.

++Nate Silver points out that the polls which show such dramatic gaps in the two candidates' fates are relying on cellphones. Cellphone users overwhelmingly favor Obama.