Zoots Allure

++Tip of the hate to Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium for mentioning Frank Zappa in his blog on election methodology.

++Willard hasn't been seen in a battleground state in a week. An airplane accident cancelled a Colorado appearance and he was last seen in Ohio.

++When you have to call a press conference at 10:26 it must be a seismic event--as the video tapes turned out to be. Romney appeared for his "I am not a Crook" moment and only took three questions and shuffled off the stage. Reporters blasted the appearance,saying he would have to answer more questions later. By this afternoon, he re-appeared on the Neil Cavuto Show to reiterate what he said about 48% of Americans and raised the bizarre issue that Illinois State Senator Barack Obama once said he was in favor of wealth distribution and it was on video. Indeed it is since it was a publicly delivered speech. But something almost 20 years ago doesn't quite equal a long devastating speech behind closed doors to a group of megamillionaires.

++Whole books could be written with the lengthy reactions to Mitt's Netflix. Josh Barro for Bloomberg News said it was the day Romney lost the election. Josh Marshall of TPM said the tapes were "devastating". Keith Olbermann taped a "Special Comment" with him laughing uproariously. 

++A new has tag #Romney Encore captured rolling commentary. Nicholas Kristof tweeted ""Condemn people who don't save enough for a weekend house?"

Another commented on Romney saying he didn't have anything growing up with "He pulled himself up by his boat shoes."  

Michael Moore tweeted,"Mitt Romney's campaign is so dead that Mormons just baptized it." 

Another--"Like watching an ocean liner go over Niagara Falls in slow motion." 

Under Breaking Rumor: Empty Chair to announce for the Presidency saying, "Even I can beat Romney now."

Bill Kristol called his remarks,"Arrogant and stupid." But most commentators didn't remark his his comment suggesting Romney step aside for a Rubio-Ryan ticket.

So where are we today?

++Obama at 67.9% on Intrade.

++UPI--Obama 49-45.
++Reuters/Ipsos 48-43.
++Latest NBC/Wall Street Journal 50 to 45 in likely; 50-44 in registered. 

++In the latest Latino Decisions, Obama 68-Romney 26; among men 61 to 32%; among women 74%-21.

Daily Kos--PPP had their poll out that shows something interesting. Obama leads 49 to 47, but in battleground states he's 50 to 46, with an increase of 1; in Red States 46 to 51 (with an increase of 3), in Blue States 51 to 44 ( a decrease of 5.)

By the States:
Pennsylvania : Muhlenberg just confirms the slew of PA polls--Obama 50 to Romney 41.
Virginia:
PPP--Obama 51 to Romney 46.
Washington Post--52 to Romney 44 (likely) and 50-43 registered.
Michigan: 
MRG poll--Obama 48 to Romney 42.
Massachusetts: 
PPP Obama 57 to Romney 39
Suffolk University: Obama 64 to Romney 31.
Oregon:
Survey USA Obama 50 to Romney 41.

Elizabeth Warren has led in three straight polls over the last two days.
Tammy Baldwin has led in two straight polls over Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin. 
Debbie Stabenow leads in Michigan.

Nate Silver predicts there is a 70% chance the Democrats will retain the Senate, with 51 being his prediction. That dramatically reverses his views of a few weeks ago as the GOP seemed posed to win.