Thursday, September 20, 2012

Wacky Polls

++Nate Silver writes today that the polling take is wacky. Can you believe Rasmussen giving Romney a 4 pt. lead in New Hampshire while Obama wins Wisconsin by 17? 

++Sam Wang, who must smoke great stuff, has the probably of the Democrats taking over the House--not retaining the Senate mind you--at 74%.

++In likely voters,Reuters/Ipsos' tracking poll has Obama at 48 and Romney at 43.

++PPP Wisconsin has Obama at 52 and Romney at 45.

++YouGov, a Republican leaning pollster, has the national election at 46 to 46.   BUT...

++Let's look at the state races:

Colorado: Obama 50 Romney 45
New Hampshire: Obama 48 to Romney 42
Florida: Obama 49 to Romney 47
Iowa:    Obama 48 to Romney 43
Nevada: Obama 51 to Romney 44
Virginia: Obama 48 to Romney 44
Wisconsin: Obama 48 to Romney 47
Michigan: Obama 51 to Romney 42
Ohio: Obama 47 to Romney 44
Pennsylvania: Obama 52 to Romney 43.

North Carolina: Romney 48 to Obama 46.

So Obama takes 10 out of 11 states and the election is tied. OK.

UConn/Hartford Courant on Connecticut: Obama 53 and Romney 32.

Detroit News/WDIN On Michigan :Obama 52 to Romney 37.8

Maybe we are entering a zone prior to the elections that the polls are ceasing to be meaningful.



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