Saturday, September 15, 2012

Saturday at the Polls

++The demonstrations in the Middle East seemed to have ebbed despite Al Qaeda urging more attacks on embassies. The Moslem Brotherhood called off the has demonstrations in Cairo. The Pope visited Lebanon and argued against arm shipments to Syria.And Bibi Netanyahu is scheduled to appear on Face the Nation to discuss the Iranian nuclear threat.

++So where are we at the end of the week. An informal poll by CNN asked "Who do you trust on foreign policy? President Obama or Mitt Romney. 79% selected Obama and 21% selected Romney. For the first time since 9/11, Democrats are trusted the same as a party on the terrorist issue. The New York Times indicated that now Mitt Romney is only trusted on one issue--tackling the federal deficit.

++Nate Silver reports that he has down graded President Obama's probability of winning the election to the mid-70s because of August's poor report on manufacturing which had been a positive indicator for President Obama for months.

++In case you haven't noticed, HuffingtonPost has upgraded their computer model for this year's election using both national and state polls. That's why you see President Obama with a 316 to 206 EV advantage. The only toss-up states they have are Wisconsin and Iowa.

++Israel's Haaretz news paper reports polling of the American Jewish community that shows President Obama with a 70 to 25 lead over Romney. Romney's share of the American Jewish vote has plummeted.

++Rasmussen still has Romney leading President Obama in his tracking poll by 48-45. Other polling groups claim the issue is that Rasmussen's poll typically tilt 4-5 its toward the GOP.

++Rasmussen,however, has a shocking poll for North Carolina. President Obama has a 51 to 45 lead.

++In Virginia, according to Rasmussen, Obama has a 49-48 lead.

++Gallup has President Obama at 49 to 44.

++Reuters/Ipsos tracking has President Obama at 48 to 41. 

++CBS/NYT has its poll at 49 Obama-Romney46. But simply taking registered voters, it's President Obama at 51-43.

++If you are interested in foreign opinion, the UPI through Voter International polled 30 countries and President Obama is the choice of 81%.

++In Washington State, Obama is above his 2008 margin at 53 to 36.

++Farleigh Dickinson has Obama leading Romney in New Jersey 52-38.

++The Philadelphia Inquirer has Obama opening his lead to 50 to 39.

++Survey USA has Colorado close at 47-46 Obama .

++In Illinois , Obama has opened up a 47 to 34 lead.

++Michigan The Foster group has Obama by 46 to Romney's 44.

After next week, say goodby to the House, who are going on a two month recess. So don't expect action on the Jobs Bill, the Farm Bill or anything else.

++Romney remarks about the embassy attacks were given wide coverage in all the Swing States and were roundly condemned. The Romney campaign claims they will "refocus" their campaign after the debates. So I guess we can expect the next version of Romney for the last month of the campaign.

++A Federal court ruled against Iowa's efforts to stifle the Vote and delayed any voter purge. In Pittsburgh the Voter ID law goes to court again because the original court decision upholding the law used a legal precedent used during the days of slavery.

++Paul Ryan seems to be cultivating the Confederate vote in Florida by referring to the state as "the breadbasket of the South", which was a term used by the Confederates during the civil war.

++Meanwhile Gallup had President Obama at 49-44.

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