++Last election I wrote that the path to victory lay along the line from Minnesota through Pennsylvania. The McCain campaign felt they had a shot at Minnesota,Michigan and Pennsylvania. McCain publicly withdrew from Michigan sparking dissent from Sarah Palin who vowed to campaign there with her husband Todd. The McCain camp threw all their weight into Pennsylvania even though every poll showed that it was not winnable. They thought they could capture Minnesota because the GOP belt their convention there and Tim Pawlenty, McCain's buddy, was Governor. This was not to be.
++How does it stand for 2012. After the auto bailout and a slight resurgence of manufacturing, President Obama stands to repeat much of his 2008 victories. Through hubris, Romney figured he was the favorite son of Michigan and with Paul Ryan they could form a Midwestern front.
++If we take states where Obama is polling at 50 or 49 as givens, he has Minnesota,Michigan and Pennsylvania and Illinois locked away. That's 66 electoral votes. Nearby are Iowa and Wisconsin with 16 electoral votes, where he is close. He seems to have lost Indiana this year with its 11 electoral votes. But is polling very close to taking Ohio, another 18 votes. So that would be a total of 100EV from this line from Minnesota to Pennsylvania.
++Today Mitt Romney withdrew his campaign staff and its Hispanic outreach from New Mexico, surrendering the state to President Obama. Add too this there withdrawing ad funds from Pennsylvania and you would tactical retreats for a bigger play at Ohio and Florida where Romney desperately has to win.
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