Why an Obama Bounce

++The prediction of an Obama bounce was in the neighborhood of 1.1% because he is the incumbent. Romney made American history with the first negative bounce. It looks like Obama will have a significant bounce even with the jobs report.

++So what gives? The Democratic Convention was the best I have seen since watching political conventions. It was enthusiastic ,it kept reinforcing various themes and built each night to a climax where you wanted to keep watching. The perception that san American political party could do something competently in the day of tea baggers was a confidence builder. The Democratic Convention also highlighted competent people.

++I'm one of those that think the media didn't play a significant role in 2008 elections. I'm probably one of the few. I believed that election and that one was determined on the ground and I believe this one will be also.

++So what may indicate a turnaround in Obama's fortune. I believe there is a limit to the period one can remain pessimistic without seeking psychiatric care. Even though the press keeps waiting for a good jobs report, the electorate is OK with just one that sees the creation of jobs. The Gallup economic poll today showed Americans have significantly started getting more optimistic about the economy. Not by a great deal but certainly the attitude is changing. I think people are tired of being pessimistic and told to be pessimistic.

++What accounts for the Obama bounce is that he portrayed a realistic optimism based in commonsense. He gave permission to people to feel good. You can trash the man on Hope and Change all you want but why would you vote for someone that is such a bummer like Romney?

++There is also the more personal element. The American people actually like their president. Today's Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Obama cleans Romney's clock in almost every personal characteristic. Do you really want to send that man home? Is the situation in this country so bad that you would vote against an eloquent man with a good sense of humor who brews beer in the White House? It took some time for the American electorate to warm to President Obama. The Democratic Convention gave people an excuse to like him again. Besides, consider what kind of music Romney would play at the White House. Is it worth the gamble?  Optimism wins in politics, not pessimism.