The Dead Cat Bounce

++If you haven't, watch the episodes of John Stewart and Stephen Colbert on "The Old Man and the Chair" as the Clint Eastwood frolics continue. One wag said that Eastwood was going to the DNC and debate an empty suit. 

++Willard Romney was greeted by a women who had lost her home to Hurricane Isaac and she asked him for help and he said--read this slowly--"Go home and call 211." A woman who had her house destroyed is told to go "home" and place a phone call. Oh, forget it.

++Bill Kristol expressed dismay that Romney never expressed any support for the men and women serving overseas. Huffington Post printed a story that Romney was the first Republican nominee who had not mentioned war since 1952. So what is the Right's response--send me a Daily Caller piece that soldiers were silent during President Obama's speech at Fort Bliss. I guess they must have been mesmerized because you can catch the ecstatic response to Obama afterward on any website. The military swarmed him. 

++We are in day three of the post-Romney speech news cycle. This morning the Washington Post decided to give page 1 to an analysis of how the Eastwood speech happened and so did the New York Times. The Post also write about how the "insular President breaks out of his bubble by campaigning around the country"--short for he doesn't invite us to the White House for dinner.

++Clint Eastwood has a new movie out on the 21st--think his appearance had anything to do with its promotion? But he has sucked the air out of the room. 

++Stephen Schmidt, McCain's old campaign manager, said that Republicans were looking for a "bounce" out of the convention that showed Romney with a lead above the margin of error. That would assure Republicans that Romney had a chance.

++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama ahead 44-43. Romney in the previous days picked up 3 its but seems to be giving back. Gallup has Obama 47-46. Rasmussen has Romney up by 3. In short,the dead cat bounce. We should know by Monday but then any bounce should get wiped out by the DNC next week. Even Nate Silver, since my midnight post, has Obama inching up some more.

++Sam Wang at Princeton is modelling a Black Swan event--something so unpredictable that it would change all calculations. His event is the possibility that Bibi Netanyahu will attack Iran and how that might change the dynamics of the race. When you have time to do that, you really must think the next month is pretty set.

++Anyone catch Obama in Des Moines, Iowa. Huge crowd. He said you could have watched the RNC on a black-and-white television for all its old ideas. Obama is to build his way through rallies to Charlotte, North Carolina.

++Did anyone get the fact that George Romney, Mitt's father, was a war refugee in his speech. Was that a throwback like trying to imply that Mitt was Dondi's son?

++The Mormons came out today and explained that Coke and Pepsi were OK to drink.