Friday, September 7, 2012

Post-Convention

++The jobs report came out and it was lower than expectations with only 94,000 jobs added but unemployment rate is down to 8.1%. So Romney was thrilled . But wait, the August jobs report was the best in 6 years--since 2006. August is always a weak month. 

++Morning Joe writes in Politico that the Democrats won the Conventional War by outshining the RNC's Tampa Event. "How terrible,how flat, how dull does the Tampa Convention look right now." In the middle of Obama's speech, he said,"game,set, match,the Democrats have trounced the Republicans in these conventions." I think it was Morning Joe who was asked how the conventions compared to the Ali-Frazier fight and he said,"You mean the Ali-Wepner fight." 

++Obama hit 52,757 tweets per minute or 9 million at my last count last night. Romney hit about 15,000.

++No amount of spin can tarnish the Democrats' Convention. They put on spell-binding speakers and covered the waterfront in terms of issues and different interest groups. While the RNC was blinded by the white, a sea of white faces staring up at random diversity of the stage, the Democratic Party can truthfully say it looks like America both on stage and in the audience.

++The Romney campaign has 30 billionaires backing it and will launch today a $100 million ad blitz on swing states. Photogenic John Sununu said that the campaign would "carpet-bomb" key swing states. But as I wrote yesterday, still no Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio.

++The $100 million figure is supposed to be intimidating. But some things are worth considering. Sununu said that there was not enough time to put operations on the ground in these states, which should hamper any GOTV efforts by the Romney campaign. Last election I commented on how the McCain campaign abandoned the GOTV efforts created by Haley Barbour, which were once the envy of both parties. So no ground game ,for me, is a big minus.

++Considering how the GOP spends money, rather recklessly, the $100 million will not be effectively used. Just cut off about 30-40% to overhead, kickbacks, and salaries. 

++The purpose of the ad campaign is to depress Obama's turnout ,not win votes. The question is whether the saturation of swing state airwaves will turn off voters to Romney or bludgeon people into submission. There has to be some academic study that determines how often and how long you can run attack ads before they become totally ineffectual or do they become assimilated subliminally and manipulate their mind that way. 

++Watch Ohio. The Obama people said their internal polls had them 9 its ahead. Obama will be campaigning with Bill Clinton there. He is in Iowa today. So Quinnipiac will have a poll out soon. If Obama leads by the margin of error, then no amount of negative ads will win it for Romney. That's all you need to know. The rest is inside baseball.

++So a day after the Democratic Convention, President Obama is in better shape than he was in 2008 against John McCain.

++The Obama campaign should force Romney to accelerate his campaigning schedule because it is clear Romney physically can't take it and he makes mistakes. This is a 65 almost 66-year old man. 

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