Thursday, September 27, 2012

A Lull In the Action

++Nate Silver today analyzes Romney's Plan B--winning without Ohio. The Hail Mary Pass would lead to Romney winning with 273. That is he would have to sweep what were once called Toss-Ups states.If he lost New Hampshire, he would be stuck at 269 and tied with the President. He needs to carry Virginia, Florida, Nevada,Iowa and Wisconsin. Earlier I did my own post at this imaginary outcome. I still say that the historical rule no Republican can win the presidency without Ohio has more weight than either my or Nate Silver's mental gymnastics. 

++Most interesting in his analysis is that he ran 25,001 computer simulations with Romney losing Florida and Ohio and found literally ZERO cases where Romney wins.

++Since Polling Trutherism is now the rage that polls are breaking in Obama's direction, the Right can take heart with Romney winning the latest Indiana poll 52 to 40, returning that state to the Republican fold. However, the tea bagger in the Senate race is losing to the Democrat.

++Larry Sabato at Crystal Ball has released his predictions. Obama wins the presidency with 290 Electoral Votes to Romney's 206. The Democrats hold the Senate 51 to 49. The Republicans hold the House 236 Republicans--199 Democrats. Sabato generally has accurate predictions.

++IPSOS-Reuters tracking poll has Obama at 49 to 43.

++Nate Silver is right about one thing--it is unlikely Obama will win Ohio with more than his national lead.

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