The Bounce

++Nate Silver is getting flack this morning as people are demanding he wait for his call on the bounce and Obama's lead. He responded he calls them as he sees them. Right now, Obama has an 80% chance of winning, 318.8 EV-219.2 for Romney,and 51.6% popular vote. Sam Wang at Princeton says the bounce is coming in and he has Obama at an 87% chance of winning. Wang also did some inside Gallup tracking to discover that after Michelle Obama spoke the President's approval hit 57%. 

++Remind me not to stay up to wait for PPP polls again. Their poll of Ohio shows Obama at 50-45 for Romney. 15% of Republicans polled believe that Romney killed Bin Laden. Romney has a 44% popularity rating. While Romney led Obama before the conventions,that is gone. But one should note that Obama's lead is not as large as both campaign have said.

++In New Mexico, a local poll has Obama at 45 to Romney 40 and 7% for Johnson. Obama leads Romney in Hispanic votes 56 to 26.

++PPP in North Carolina have Obama at 49 to 48.

And now the Tracking Polls:

Gallup : 49 to 44.
Rasmussen (today): 50-45.
Reuters/Ipsos: 47-43.

Whether today will continue Obama's breakout remains to be seen. Larry Sabato says that Obama's lead will remain for two weeks and then fade. 

The Obama campaign announced today they had out raised the Romney campaign for the first time in three months. That doesn't include the Convention.