Friday, October 31, 2014

I'll Give Sam Wang Halloween

++One of the few interesting thing about this mid-term is how puzzled pollsters are about the accuracy of the polls and the weird stability of the races despite the noise. Sam Wang notes that the polls have gone up and down but his meta-margin remains relatively stable. Today ,it is R +.4%.

++Wang finds that there currently are 6 Senate races left where the margins of difference are less than 2%. Alaska, Colorado,Georgia,Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina. Republicans could win all six or the Democrats could win all six at this late hour. 

++Wang's computer work today puts the GOP a slight favorite at taking the Senate at 55%. 

++The range runs from a 54 to 46 GOP Senate to a Democratic majority of 52 to 48. 

++It comes down to money versus organization. Can the ad blitz by the GOP beat the GOTV of the Democrats.

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