Monday, October 20, 2014

Obama Tanking?

++Politico headlined a piece that Democrats hurt by Ebola and the American people fear terrorism and the government's competence. But their poll numbers show something else.

++61% of Americans are confident our government can deal with the Ebola issue.

++58% support Obamacare, with a few tweaks.

++And President Obama has a little bounce up to a 47% approval rating.

++The Democrats are at 38%

++The GOP at 30%.

++On the House preference Americans favor Democrats by 41 to 36. Traditionally that would mean a tie. Because of gerrymandering and bizarre voting requirements,it's estimated that the GOP will pick up 5 seats. 

++Which Party is perceived as being for Wall Street and the Big Banks, it is the GOP by a 39% to 9% wipeout.

Then Zogby Analytics has a poll that President Obama had a three point bounce since September moving from a 43% approval rate to 46%. Rasmussen actually had him at 50% the other day.

The problem as I see it is that his bounce comes from his classic base which vote less in the mid-terms. For instance among the 18-29 year olds he went up 13 points from 43 to 56%. Among the 30-49 year olds,he is at 51%. Among 50-64 year old 42%. And in the 66 or over, who do vote, he is at 27%.

Among Hispanics, who are complaining about being underestimated in the polls this mid-term,he is at 76%.
Among Investors, he is at 54%.
Among "Wall Mart Shoppers" he is at 55%.
Among the "creative class" he is at 58%.

But the elections that matter are being held in Romney states where his approval ratings are in the 30s.

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