Sam Wang Takes A Dive

++Sam Wang now puts Dem chances at 39%. The meta-margin now is R+0.4%- 2.6%.

++Yesterday, the Hill published a piece about Democrats worrying about voter turnout since The Gallup poll shows that only 33% of people polled intended to vote. If true, this would be a lower turnout than 2010 and 13% of the GOP voters are paying more attention to the races than Democratic voters.

++Celinda Lake said that core constituencies are depressed and not energized. For instance, the Hispanic voters are sullen because President Obama did not make his moves on immigration before the election, something Lake expected. 

++However,reports from the field show that in battleground races there is intense interest. Where there are few competitive races like California and New York,the response is ho-hum.

++One race where there is intense interest is the Iowa Senate race where the latest Bloomberg poll shows that it is down to 1% for Ernst. Josh Marshall at Talking Points dissected the poll, which showed that Braley is supported on the issues by Iowans and that Iowans like having Senators from two different parties.

++This election comes down to the success of the Bannock Street Get Out The Vote campaign by the Democrats. However,the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity is mounting a strong get out the vote effort, particularly in Florida.