Monday, October 6, 2014

Wang Fed Up With Nate Silver

++The last week has seen an unsavory tweeter war between Nate Silver and Sam Wang. Wang taunts that his academic work is peer-reviewed not tweeted against.

++ Today Wang puts the Democrats back up to 50-50 with a meta-margin back to D +0.5%. The election day probability of the Democrats holding the Senate is now back to 67% from yesterday's 51%.

++Nate Silver warns that pollster's are saying that this year's polling is worse than the past.

++Another election watcher is saying that 5% change their mind in the polling booth and favor the incumbent because people are afraid of change--whoever he or she is.

++Huffington Post after the avalanche of state polls yesterday see the Senate breaking to the GOP but barely. Today they have it 52 to 48 but that Iowa and Colorado could go either way. Apparently Mark Udall is finally coming off some good poll days.

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