Monday, October 27, 2014

Sam Wang on strangeness of 2014

++Princeton Election Consortium is still at 49 Dems and 51 Republicans in the Senate. The meta-margin is  R.+0.3%.

++Sam Wang looks at the volatility of past elections and doesn't find much. But he says this one is peculiar because 2010 Republican governors at at risk and 2008 Democratic Senators. Basically the two surge elections are facing reaction.

++At this late date,it is astonishing to find 11 Governors' races and 7 Senatorial races where the differences between candidates are 3 percentage points or less.

++Coupled with Nate Silver's observations about the eerie consistency of polling, this election looks like it will have a profound impact on our political economy in ways that we haven't realized.

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