Sunday, October 5, 2014

The New Wedge Issues--Ebola and Terrorism

++Lindsey Graham, who threatens to run for President, said that President Obama is "all in" on Ebola and not so much on ISIS. In one sentence, Graham outlined the GOP's 2014 election strategy.

++Earlier this week, Rude Pundit,not Mary Landrieu's biggest fan because of her love of Big Oil, lamented how Louisiana people have suddenly turned on her because they thought she was weak on terrorism. And naturally, his informants said a women couldn't be as tough as a man.

++The return of Terror Politics was noticed by Josh Marshall at TalkingPointsMemo with Josh astonished at how quick it returned.

++The GOP cut ads for Scott Brown in New Hampshire,Tom Tillis in North Carolina,Cassidy in Louisiana and Gardner in Colorado accusing their opponents of being weak on terrorism and ,of course, backing President Obama--whose policies against ISIS actually have majority report.

++David Perdue in Georgia has adopted the modified Chambliss anti-Max Cleveland offense by accusing Michelle Nunn of actually supporting terrorists. 

++This may seem strange but there is a reason to this madness. The GOP has lost all its old social issues like gays, guns and abortion. The National Memo this week wrote an article about how the gender gap is the highest in history as measured by polls--upwards to 30 points. The Democrats have been hammering at the GOP's war against women's reproductive rights and antagonism to equal pay laws. 

++There is now a structural gender gap between the two parties. But it is less among married women. The Democrats have single women wrapped up but in a mid-term they are less likely to vote. So the GOP aims to solidify their white males and married white women for this election.

++So if you have nothing, you campaign against terrorism and the Ebola plague--which as of now consists of one person in Dallas. The initial effort to seem reasonable by supporting contraceptives don't pan out so you ramp up terrorism. As Scott Brown said no one cares about women's health issues.

++Of course, the entire election boils down to Barack Obama--the great GOP foil. For the record,under Barack Obama more jobs have been created than under both Bush presidencies combined. But no one has made that point. Likewise,the GOP's plans to repeal Obamacare have laid dormant because that might spark a reaction given that the program has been a success. But if elected, it will resurface with a vengeance.

++The President has gotten a week of good speeches on the economy and Obamacare and what he plans to do in the future but I am afraid no one is listening. I thought he came to late to the party and he will not be able to insert himself in a positive way the rest of the campaign.

++Tsunamis of money are being spent this campaign and the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity have declared they will be attacking Democrats specifically in the remaining days instead of their indirect attacks of the past.

++The test for the Democrats is whether their GOTV comes up to the hype they emphasized just after 2012. It worked in 2013 with the election of Terry MacAuliffe in Virginia. The idea is that a mini-Obama coalition in off-years can win tight elections.

++The other factor is that state-oriented issues seem to be playing out. For instance,Kay Hagan would be in terrible danger if North Carolina was not experiencing the plague of the Thom Tillis legislature. Likewise,Kansas would not be in play if Brownback's experiment had not been a disaster. The same can be said about Georgia and Nathan Deal's rule, which gives Democrats a life at both state and national offices.

++If Bobby Jindal were a success, then Mary Landrieu would not even be competitive.

++Less than a month out, it's not clear whether the terror or Ebola issue will make much of a difference. America is in a bad mood. The question is why one is in a bad mood. Is it because your state government is exceedingly obnoxious or your national government is  dysfunctional.

++The Democrats have not capitalized on the fact that the GOP closed the federal government and cut funding for CDC, when it wanted more funds to plot a strategy to thwart diseases like Ebola. They have not done enough to support the President's economic measure while pointing out that the Ryan Budget is still alive and possible to pass with a GOP Senate. All these issues are muted and the Democrats have played defense the entire campaign.

++They have allowed the Corporate media to pretend that there are no wackos this year running as Republicans when Gardner and Ernst are sitting pretty. The great job creator David Perdue admits he made his fortune by outsourcing jobs from this state. And another thing the Democrats have not emphasized is that GOP candidates are refusing to debate. Scott Walker just turned down a debate with Mary Burke. This just allows the GOP candidates to skate on the blizzard of television ads.

++Right now, the GOP looks like it will pick up a few House seats and it is 50-50 on the Senate. Hopefully,the worst governors will bite the dust. But this vote is important because it could make the last two years of President Obama's presidency a hell.

++One thing the Democrats have totally missed,a GOP Senate will fast track the trade agreements and President Obama will approve them.

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