Now We Know What Nate Silver Means About South Dakota

++ As of yesterday,the interesting story was that the Mayday PAC was dropping $1 million into Rick Weiland's campaign. But that really wasn't what caught Nate Silver's eye.

++Survey South Dakota, a poll conducted by Survey USA and the state's radio stations,showed a virtual surge for former Senator and independent Larry Pressler. As we said,Pressler has virtually no money and probably could not counter an attack by Mike Rounds. But surging, he is.

++It's too late for anyone to drop off the ballot like they did in Kansas and besides Larry Pressler is a pretty conservative guy. 

++The poll shows:
Rounds 35%
Pressler 32%
Weiland 28%
Howie     3%
Undecided 2%

++Rounds has been badly hurt with the green card scandal and South Dakotans are referring to him as corrupt. He now only has the support of 55% Republicans in the state.

++If Weiland dropped out,the poll found that 71% of his voters would back Pressler and only 9% Rounds. Pressler would get 54% of the vote compared to Round's 39%.

++If Pressler dropped out,the race would be tied at 47 to 47. 

++As it stands today, Rounds could win a Senate seat with 35% or less of the vote. And given mid-term turnouts,that might turn out to be 7% of the total electorate.