Sam Wang Goes There

++Sam Wang raises the issue whether this is a Bush-Kerry replay. At 8:00pm tonight, he had Obama at 277 EV and Romney at 261EV. Romney was up a median 1.0% but the Popular Vote Meta Margin was Obama +.84%. Wang had already dissected all the polls and ran his computer programs. He writes that it would take a pretty hard push to drive the meta margin to the red side--something Big, in addition to current trends. Should we look at an October Surprise?

++Romney, who months ago in this blog,has no mathematical chance to win the electoral college now has a chance in Wang scenario if he wins Ohio or a combination of Nevada and Wisconsin.

++A poster at the Dailykos blasted Nate Silver at the New York Times for saying that Romney had his best polling day ever. Still Nate Silver's prediction today is still sunnier than Wang. Nate Silver is on a book tour. But it could be said that with all the polls--over 60 yesterday--and today's 32 polls--his computer could make today Romney's high point. Certainly in the area of Electoral Votes.

++Sometimes the random blogger hits on a good idea. Yesterday at the Daily Kos, someone suggested that Obama's firewall should be Nevada because it has 5 electoral votes and the Hispanic voters who favor Obama there above their own national average provided the difference for Harry Reid's victory. James Ralston's column about how the polls in Nevada are rotten from a practical point of view remarks how Democratic registrations are soaring compared to Republican and that polls will under-estimate Obama as they did Reid.

++Steve Singisier at Daily Kos did the math tonight and found that President Obama has about 281 EV and that yes Romney could win but also that if the polls shifted back by 1 or two points in Obama''s direction he is back at 320+ and a sizable victory.

++What all this tells me is that the lead by President Obama built up since July has evaporated. He can not afford any more mistakes. Gallup recorded that Romney's victory in the first debate was the largest they have ever recorded and the effects produced the largest bounce of the campaign at a terrible time. 

++There is an irony to this. Romney is totally dependent on white males to win the election. He must poll significantly more than 60% of the white vote to win. It is probably the last election any candidate will be able to pull off that strategy.