Good Vibrations

++I'm hanging on to Allan Lichtman's prediction about President Obama's re-election. I haven't seen any more keys drop so we venture into the last days before the election waiting on another Jobs Report,some disaster abroad and the barrage of dog whistles on race and the avalanche of attack ads.

++But before tomorrow's debate and rumors of poor polling numbers for the President, let's take stock of where we are today.

    **Princeton Consortium led by Sam Wang has a 84% probability President Obama will be re-elected. The meta-margin ticked up today. EV stands at 280 to 258. Romney's bounce was 5.5 its and Obama has made up 3 so far.

    **Electoral Vote.com has President Obama at 290 and  Romney at 239. Only Colorado is a Toss-up.

    **Utah Valley U has Obama at 322 EV and winning with 53% of the popular vote.
    
    **Nate the Great has Obama with 290 EV, 50% of the popular vote and 66% chance of re-election.
    
    **Huffington Post printed a Swing State analysis today that showed President Obama with 290EV. Even subtracting Nevada and Colorado, he would be at 275. Curiously the next available swing state was Virginia, which they only gave Obama a 40.1% chance of winning. Seeing the Obama operation here, let's play pretend and give Virginia to Obama. That would be 303EV.

  ++ Warning: New York Magazine did a poll of an equal number Democrats and Republican insiders and they predict Obama wins 82% to 18%. These are the Beltway operatives and their judgment is almost always wrong on matters of policy. So I hope they have one good day.

  ++Intratrade has Obama at 61.6%.

  ++Most interesting poll of the day was Time Magazine of its readers. Does Mitt Romney lie? 71.83% say yes and 28.17 no. 

   ++The Romney campaign said they found one weakness about Obama that they are going to exploit in this election--Latinos don't find him macho enough. 
He's better work fast. Latino Decisions poll today showed Obama at 67 to Romney 23. Remember in 2004, George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote to win.

   ++Catholic for Choice commissioned a poll that showed Catholics supported Obama 46 to 41 and resented abortion emerging as a central campaign issue.

   ++Reuters/Ipsos has Obama 47 to Romney 45 in likely voters.

   ++IBD/TIPP Obama 46.9 to Romney 46.6.

   ++UPI   Romney 49 to Obama 46.

    ++Gallup Romney 49 to Obama 47 LV.
                    Obama  48 to Romney 46 RV.

    ++Rasmussen Romney 49 to Obama 48, 2 for other parties and 2 undecided.

    ++Remember what Nate Silver said about Romney is in trouble whenever his lead is 2 points or less.

    ++The Gallup poll of swing states that showed Romney with a five point lead is too murky to understand. The problem is that some of his leads are in states that Obama doesn't need and in those he does the lead doesn't materialize.

     ++The GOP is outspending Democrats 2 to 1 in Swing states but that is deceptive because reports are coming out that the GOP is spending three times the amount for the same spot because they have bought late. The other interesting news is that the Koch Brothers Pac is no longer in the presidential race but at the congressional level. I guess the Koch Brothers ordering 455,000 of their employees to vote for Romney was their last stab at the presidential side of things.