Odd Items About Polls

++I actually saw an electoral map today where Romney wins with 301 EV. The authors reasoned that all you have to do is get rid of all the Marist College polls that showed Obama leading in the swing states,insert all the pro-Romney polls, which are naturally more accurate, and then, according to Dick Morris, all undecided go to Romney because they like to support a winner. Bingo you would get there. Heaven forbid.

++But this raises some interesting issues. During last night's meltdown in Democratic blogs,some one raised a point about who are the "registered voters" versus "likely voters". Gallup now does this and in the past it has given them problems. But this year raises an interesting question. David Pflouffe strenuously raised objections to Nate Silver about the Mason Dixon poll, which showed Obama at 44% in Florida. Pflouffe raised the point that they were doing better this year among Hispanics in Florida than in 2008 so how could Obama doing so poorly. The missing element is that the major pollsters do not have Spanish speakers making calls or robocalls in Spanish. So we don't know where within the national polls are Hispanics, while in Latino Decisions we know Hispanic attitudes but separate from the wider population. That's why John Ralston said that no polls were go in Nevada, citing how the Hispanics put Harry Reid over the top. No pollster expected them to show up.

++So the answer is we don't know the difference between registered and likely or the new category "certain" to show up. All this indicates now is the level of enthusiasm and that can change.

++So Latino Decisions showed that 80% of Latins supported Obama in Arizona. All major polls have shown Romney wins Arizona in a walk away. But today Rocky Mountain shows Obama with a 44 to 42 lead in the state. Does this show Hispanic involvement? I don't know. 

++Rand Tracking poll showed a drift back toward Obama. But it is worth looking at the tabs in this tracking poll because it has # who pick Obama to win--55% and among voters in specific states predictions about who is going to win. In today's case, the people of Ohio said Obama by more than 55%. The polling for Florida has shown a reverse of the original prediction--now Romney by a slim margin.

++Nate Silver won back his Democratic backers by saying that the GOP's chances of recapturing the Senate are fading. He predicts an over 89% chance of the Democrats winning. Among the winners he picks Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts and Tom Kaine in Virginia. Sam Wang also has noticed that Senate polls are separating from national polls. He asks are they lagging national polls or ahead of them. Do down ballot candidates have reverse coattails or are the American people looking to split their ticket. Gallup has said that the American people are overwhelmingly for one party ruling both the White House and Congress to avoid gridlock. This is why the Obama campaign must shut down the new Romney-Ryan talk of bipartisanship given the past 4 years of Republican obstructionism.

++Another issue that has come up is the proliferation of new polls,primarily from conservative outfits. Do these slant Nate Silver's work or people like Sam Wang. Several of these news outfits are offshoots of conservative or Republican companies. Some have asked the question whether they are part of the overall war in this election and meant to deceive the public and soften it up for more outrageous stunts at the polls. At pollster.com, they have a no app where you can exclude the polls you don't want and it will modulate the results with the rest.

++Get ready for the great aerial bombardment, The Romney campaign is following their primary strategy of bombing their opposition into submission through millions of dollars of attack ads. Already the Cleveland area has seen 66,000 ads this campaign. Unfortunately, the first debate debacle led to the weakening of Obama's cushion which would have ensured that the GOTV would triumph over this tactic. Now it is anyone's call whether Money will buy the election or whether political organization will triumph.

++You will know where the election is heading if you follow the candidates and which states they choose. Joe Biden is off to Las Vegas, Mitt Romney was in North Carolina and in Ohio. Barack Obama is holed up in Virginia preparing for the next debate.

++As to election day frolics Ohio's Secretary of State is still trying to get the Supreme Court to rule on early voting in Ohio and plans not to allow early voting the weekend before the election. In 2008, this was when the largest number of African-Americans voted.