Sunday, October 14, 2012

Florida

++First the general polling news:
     Reuters/Ipsos--Obama 46-45. The pResident is back on top.
     IBD/TIPP-- Obama 47 to Romney 46
     Rand Tracking: Obama 49.1 to Romney 45.3
     Newsmax/Zogby: Obama 47 to Romney 44
     Both Gallup and Rasmussen are the same with Romney in the lead.

CORRECTION: I referred to Democratic candidate for Senate Heidi Heitkamp as running in South Dakota. It is North Dakota, sorry.

++Gravis, Colorado Obama 48.4 to Romney 46.
++PPP--North Carolina Romney 49 to Obama 47.

++FIU Florida Hispanic poll: Obama 51 to Romney 44. Nationwide Obama 66 to Romney 31. The Florida Hispanic poll shows that the Cuban vote remains Republican and Romney's good showing means President Obama will have a tough time winning the state. Besides the usual obstacles brought to bear by Gov. Scott. 

++PPP--Florida --Romney 49 to Obama 48, an improvement for Romney by five points. This trend mirrored the change in predictions by the Rand Tracking group, which previously thought Obama would win Florida with 60% says yes but now they give a small margin to Romney.

++You have to love that Rob Portman of Ohio. Today he repeated last week's statement that he thinks Romney can win without Ohio.The statement reveals a shakiness among the Romney campaign. Portman campaigned yesterday with Ryan and agreed with Ryan's views on unemployment except in Ohio the combination of the stimulus and the auto bailout lowered the once decade old double digit unemployment to roughly the national average.

++Let's go back to the Newsmax/Zogby poll.
Obama wins Hispanics 62 to 30.
                   African-Americans 95 to 1
                   Women 51 to 40
                   Catholics 53-42.
                   Moderates 56 to 29%.

Romney wins the seniors over 65 :58-35, which shows that Obama has to hammer on Social Security and Medicare and explain why Romney is going to cause Medicare to go bankrupt by 2016.
           Men: 49-43.
          Evangelicals: 62 to 28.
          Married: 50 to 40.

President Obama in the next debate touch on immigration reform to shore up the Hispanics, Medicare and Social Security, and raise the women's issues both in employment and reproductive rights. Recent polls have shown that Romney has closed the gender gap in ways that are dangerous.




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