Monday, October 8, 2012

Romney Bounce Recedes

++The polling data coming off the debate bounce is confusing. The Martinez report, for instance, which reads the fine print of polls, suggests that Romney gained 1.18 its nationwide leaving Obama with a 4.34pt lead. Gallup's 47-47 tie, which was based on a three day poll,gave way to a return today of an Obama 50 to Romney 45 lead and a resurgence of a Obama's approval rating to 51%. Rasmussen's tracking poll has returned to a 48-48 tie. The Rand tracking poll is at 48 Obama to 45 for Romney.

++Latino Decisions didn't find any Romney bounce. President Obama is at 72% and Romney at 20%.

++Western New England College finds that President Obama leads in Massachusetts 63 to 33 over Romney.

++PPP finds Obama ahead in Virginia 50-47.

++WRAL in North Carolina finds President Obama ahead by 49 to 47. 

++Rasmussen's Swing State polls are funky. He finds Obama got a bounce to a 49-47 lead in Iowa and Colorado 49 to 48.

++Meanwhile in the Senate,Intratrade predicts Democrats will win 52, with 2 independents, and Republicans with 48. Currently there are 53 Democrats (including 2 Independents) and 47 Republicans. So Intratrade thinks Democrats lose 1 seat but retain control of the Senate.

++Rasmussen has Obama ahead by a point in Ohio but the Senate race of Brown versus Mandel tied. All other polls I have seen on the Senate race show Brown crushing Mandel even though the Superpacs are pouring millions into Mandel's campaign.


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