++Sam Wang noted today sharp downticks for Obama because Rasmussen and We Ask American released some polls that show Obama losing strength. Two Rasmussen polls I did not mention were Virginia, where he has Romney at 49 to Obama 48 or +2 and Florida where he has Romney at 49 to Obama's 47 or a +6. Gravis poll of Nevada has Obama at 49 to 48.
++So Sam Wang who admits to dozing off about a half hour into the debate was asked by Kevin Drum to generate his predictions for November. Today, President Obama 319 EV and Romney 219EV.
++Princeton's predictions are:
President: Obama 332EV to Romney 206 EV. Using his method, there is a 68% probability that it is 314EV and 347EV. There is a 95% probability that it is between 282 and 347EVs.
Popular vote: Obama 52.1% and Romney 47.9%.
Senate: 54D/I and 46 Republicans.
68% 53-55 seats D/I 95%--51-56 seats.
++Obama wins the Presidency, Democrats hold the Senate. Sam Wang is now working on the House predictions. If you really are a wonk, you can review his writing this morning on his House methodology.
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