O-H-I-O

++Neil Young was in Cleveland the past week and I am sure he sang the song.

++Fivethirtyeight says there is a 40% chance that Ohio will provide the pivotal electoral votes in this election. Remember George W.Bush only won because he took Ohio. At that time the religious Right flooded the state and Ken Blackwell was Secretary of State and Karl Rove was implicated in voting machine manipulation but the witness died in a plane crash.

++So the courts have ruled against this Secretary of State trying to suppress the vote in Democratic-leaning counties around Cleveland. Originally, the Secretary of State wanted only the Republican counties to engage in early voting. The African-American community has come in force in retain to the voter suppression efforts. President Obama won Ohio last time but he was protected by a Democratic Secretary of State, who tried to avoid the problems of 2004, and Democratic Governor Strickland. 

++This year the Obama campaign has built their best operation in the state. The President has travelled to Ohio more times than to any other state. SuperPacs have bombarded the state with attacks ads. But the President's SuperPac ran the Bain ads and the 47% ads to great effect, which shaped Romney's political identity early. And Sherrod Brown has run his own re-election campaign on an unapologetic progressive agenda and now looks like he will triumph over a flood of attacks ads. 

++So with 20% of the state's vote in, Obama has won 63%. This is a state that earlier this week NBC/WSJ/Marist had him with a 6-pt lead. There have been polls by CNN,Survey America,Zogby,ABC,NBC in Columbus and of course the great 7-11 poll and Obama has led everyone, sometimes only by a point.

++The question is whether Romney can win 53.25% of the rest of the vote. It is clear that the Romney campaign doesn't view their prospects in Ohio favorably since they have talked this week of winning without it. If he loses Ohio, he loses.

++So election night keep your hawk eyes out on Ohio because it is one of the states where election manipulation can and has occurred in the past.