Thursday, October 4, 2012

Before the Jobs Report

++The next hurdle for President Obama is tomorrow's jobs report. Gallup reported that the unemployment rate is now down to 7.9%, the same as when he came into office. Whether the official report will reveal this is doubtful. He can deal with both an above average or mediocre report, not a bad one. That would just compound a media narrative that he has lost control.

++Meanwhile the ratings for the 1st Debate was 67.2 million, which surpasses the 2008 debates. The highest watched debate of all time was Reagan -Carter in 1980 at 80.6 million.

++The first post-debate poll is in Reuters/Ipsos . President Obama at 48 and Romney at 43. Romney gained two points. But looking closer one finds that Obama's favorable rating is 56 and Romney helped himself but upping his favorability to 51. But his gain was solely among Republicans. There was a surprising shift among independents toward President Obama to 54 favorable and 46 unfavorable. That marks a 16 point shift.

++The results are in on the Obama Campaign's fund-raising for September. The campaign raised $150 million, which is an all-time record by any candidate and a record for this campaign.

++Meanwhile President Obama was peppy on the stumpy today, first appearing in Colorado and then Wisconsin. For people who remember the 2008 campaign Obama enjoyed massive late fall rallies, including in Wisconsin. Today was no exception. I don't have the numbers for Colorado but in Madison he spoke to 30,000. He was at top form with attacks on Romney's statements last night. The performances today may you wonder what was going on inside his mind last night. He dismantled Romney on the stump today piece by piece.

++Watch out for a surprising event from abroad. Basically, I thought Bibi Netanyahu ruled out an Israeli attack on Iran prior to the election when he spoke to the United Nations and said Iran would not have enriched uranium to the level needed for an atomic bomb until next summer or fall. But today General Boynkin urged Israel to attack before the election. Next week we will hear Mitt Romney speak on foreign policy. President Obama has to be forceful on foreign policy to prevent the neocons from rising from the dead.

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