Friday, October 5, 2012

Jobs Report--Neutral and Good News

++The U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs in September and the figures for August and July were revised to add 86,000 more than previously reported. Below six figures would have been disastrous for Obama and added momentum to Romney. As it is, the figure is not great but not fatal. Also this would have been the last jobs report, which affected the election campaign.

++But the figure that people will focus on is that unemployment dropped to 7.8%, below the rate it was when President Obama took office. It also eliminates the mantra that know President was ever been re-elected with unemployment above 8% except FDR. In fact,this scenario looks a lot like Ronald Reagan first term when unemployment dropped from 8.5% to around 7.5% by the election. Throw in Mondale crushing Reagan in the first debate and the first debate of this year and the parallel is eerie.

++Add to the post debate polls, the Rand Life Panel , which is composed of 3500 registered voters, which showed a slight bump for President Obama --50 to 44.

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