Election Madness

++Between the right-wing e-mails and the Democratic hysteria, you would think we are all going nuts. Here's a little factoid. Today's Gallup poll has President Obama's approval rating at 53%. No incumbent has ever lost with an approval rating of 49% or higher.

++No Republican has ever won the White House after losing his state. In this case, Romney is losing Massachusetts by over 30%. Maybe history will be changed this year.

++Other factors to look at. Voter registration numbers. Democrats lead in Florida, Iowa, Nevada and North Carolina. Republicans lead in Colorado and New Hampshire. Early Voting numbers. Iowa--Democrats lead by 57-25. Ohio--Obama 59 to 39. 

++CNN Ohio poll--Obama 51 to Romney 47. Obama among registered voters 53 to 43. Survey USA Ohio poll Obama by 1. In the Survey USA Ohio poll Obama leads by 17 points with cellphone users. Columbus/NBC poll on Ohio: Obama 45 to Romney 44.

++Today's Gallup poll. Remember yesterday Gallup turned on its Likely Voter filter. Today, Romney and Obama are tied at 48%, while among registered voters Obama has a 50-45 lead. 

++Rasmussen tracking poll Romney 48 to Obama 47 and 1% other. 

++Yougov national poll--Obama 49 to Romney 46 among likely voters.

++Rasmussen state polls. New Mexico Obama at 54 to Romney 43. Pennsylvania Obama 51 to Romney 46. Colorado Obama 49 to Romney 48. Nevada 47 to 47. Florida Obama 49 to Romney 45.

++One strange event happened yesterday as Suffolk University's pollster appeared on Bill O'Reilly and said they were stopping polling in Virginia, North Carolina and Florida because there was no way Obama could win these states. 

++Democrats believe that Romney pulling staff from Pennsylvania represented that he was folding his operations there. No a few staffers were sent to Ohio, although in my view they should fold up their camp there.

++Yesterday's UMUR poll of New Hampshire has Obama leading 47 to Romney's 43.

++Rasmussen yesterday has a poll on who do you think will win. 55% for Obama. 

++ABC/Washington Post yesterday has a poll on favorability. Obama 55 Romney 47.

++Rand Tracking poll asked state voters who would win in their state:
Florida: Obama 52 to Romney 40.
Ohio:    Obama 47 to Romney 45
Pennsylvania: Obama 61 to Romney 39.

++ARG poll national had Romney winning 50 to 46.

++Yesterday's Reuter/Ipsos poll had the race tied at 45-45, but Obama had a 25% advantage in Likeability and 14% advantage in caring for issues that affect me.

++Yesterday's Road to 270 election simulator had the race Democrats 304 EV and Republicans 234. But the state breakdown was intriguing. Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and Colorado go to the Republicans, Obama wins Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. I would have thought differently.

++Intratrade had Obama's odds at 61%.