Sunday, October 7, 2012

Let's Make It Easy

++For your TV watching pleasure, on election night just watch for Florida,Colorado, North Carolina,Virginia and Ohio. Romney needs all the states to win , while President Obama only needs one.

++Romney is running another one of his "lying" ads in Florida saying that President Obama will increase the taxes on every middle class family by $4,000.

++In Ohio, Romney supporters are being bussed in for voter registration drives and the GOTV campaign. Today is Pulpit Freedom Sunday for a network of fundamentalist churches trying to get people to votes against President Obama.

++Be aware that there are a number of polling outfits that have emerged that are either owned by shady GOP characters,one owned by a "Birther" and another that has rather dubious credentials. Not all their polls will be crazy because they are trying to build a business but their results will be strategically aimed for maximum effect on the race--whether local or at the state level.

++There will be a real Romney bounce. I am not as convinced as others that the jobs report will kill it. Some observers believe that the improving economy is already factored into polling. Nate Silver wrote that the lowering of the unemployment rate improves President Obama's chances. Another observer claimed that Gerald Ford experienced the same improvements but lost. Of course, Ford had pardoned Nixon, the most unpopular move of his short Presidency, and jettisoned Nelson Rockefeller,thereby losing New York State.

++Rand tracking is now at 49-45. 

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