Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Sandy--There are Fireworks over Little Eden tonight

++The President did what Presidents do and Willard gathered can goods in Ohio because cleaning up after Sandy is like "picking up trash" after a football game. John McCain, ole Walnuts, told the Ohio crowd that Obama was not competent to be Commander in Chief because of Benghazi.

++Now for the summaries of the electoral college one week out:
PPP           Obama 332    Romney 206
Electoral Vote    O 303    R           220
Princeton           O 303    R           235
538                   O 295    R           243
RCP                      290                 248
Electoral Scoreboard 282             256
Electoral Vote.com     280             235
Sabato                      267             235
TPM                          265             206
Pollster                     253             206
Cook                        253              191
CNN                         237              206

++Charlie Cook says Obama is safe in Nevada and Wisconsin and it is now even money in North Carolina and Florida.

++Ohio.  Survey USA   Obama 50 to Romney 46
               Pharos           Obama 49 to Romney 46
            Project New America Obama 48 to Romney 45
           Survey USA for Columbus Paper Obama 48 to Romney 45.

Over 1.26 million people have already voted in Ohio.

++Florida. Survey USA Romney 48 to Obama 47.
++North Carolina. Survey USA Romney 50 to Obama 45

++National Polls
   **Survey USA  Obama 47  Romney 47
   **PPP              Obama 49  Romney 49
   **Reuters/Ipsos Obama 47 Romney 46
   **Rand            Obama 50.5 Romney 45.5
   **CBS/NYT      Obama  48.  Romney 47
   **NPR             Romney 48   Obama 47
   **Gallup (registered)Romney 48 Obama 48
   **Rasmussen  Romney 49   Obama 47  1 other

++Sam Wang: 303-235   meta-margin 2.30. Anything above a 1 means Obama wins. Random Drift 93% Bayesian Prediction 98%

++Nate Silver 294.6-243.4. 72.9% win 50.3% popular vote.

++DeSart/Holbrooke 281-257, 51.38%-48.62 popular vote and 86.66% probability of Obama win.

++RichardCharnin's blog. The Presidential True Vote/Election Fraud Monte Carlo Simulation Model;

Obama 310 EV. 97.4% probability.

If the election were fraud free, Obama would have 54.2% of the vote and 348EV. The rest of the blog is chilling about voter fraud and whether Obama can escape its fate.

++A blogger ran 270 to Win's simulation over 100 times and came up with 90-95% Obama win. The average EV was 302.

++Drew Lenzer of Votamatic wrote on his blog today that if the models like Nate Silver and Sam Wang fail this election that is the biggest story. The reason is because of a failure of the polls. He explained how the various models handle errors in polls and refuted the right-wing claims that Obama favoring polls somehow have changed the models results. 

++CIRCLE survey young people aged 18 to 29. Obama leads 52 to 35. 

++Virginia--Survey USA Obama 48 to Romney 47. If you hear Virginia called for Obama on election night,celebrate. 

++Gallup Approval Rating for Obama 51%. 

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